Karl Rove’s Air Power Strategy Failed America And His Donors

We heard it repeatedly during the Iraq wars: air power alone cannot win. You must take and hold ground in war.


The same is true in political combat. For years the GOP upset Democrats at all levels through superior ground games. Typically, this process involves:

  • Identifying potential voters
  • Contacting the high-value targets
  • Registering the unregistered
  • Mobilizing them on election day

Karl Rove’s Crossroads PACs tried a different strategy this time. Rove decided to wage a decisive air campaign, using his $300 million war chest to buy airtime in key markets at the last minute. Apparently, team Romney followed suit.

The strategy failed miserably.

Rove’s 2010 Reference Point Was Flawed

Rove’s fundraising ability for 2012 relied on a flawed understanding of what happened in 2010.

During the Tea Party revolution of 2010, Rove targeted key markets with television ads late in the race. The vast majority of the races Rove targeted were winners for the Republicans. It was that fact that led some donors to trust Rove with as much as $30 million each for 2012.

Apparently, not even Rove grasped the difference in the two elections. In 2010, Rove focused on House and Senate races where Republicans were already ahead. In 2010, groups like American Majority Action and Freedomworks put unprecedented numbers of boots on the ground in these districts long before Rove every showed up.

The traditional pollsters missed 2010 because they underestimated conservative enthusiasm and over estimated Democrat enthusiasm. So when Rove’s bets paid off, it looked like he was a genius.

He was: in betting, not in strategy.

But no one bothered to ask if Rove’s 2010 ads made a real difference.

Jump ahead to 2012. Voter enthusiasm was down across the board. The money for ground warfare was diverted to Rove’s air campaign. And, unlike 2010, the full force of the DNC powered Obama’s re-election bid.

While Rove and Romney identified television markets, Obama identified and mobilized new voters. While our phone banks focused on the people on the voter rolls, Obama’s team grew the voter rolls. One observer said that Obama mobilized voters that Romney didn’t know existed.

We Can Fix It

We will win in 2014 and 2016 if we understand the failures of 2012. We need to shift spending from television and Super PACs to technology and people.

First, we need to hire top-shelf marketing strategists, data analysts, marketers, behavioral psychologists, market scientists, database designers, data miners, and web and app developers. That’s where money must go in 2013 and 2014.

Next, we need to invest in systems that support the people above. These systems have to work, they have to work well, and they have to support MODERN marketing strategies, not Y2K-era web sites.

After that, we need funding for the largest GOTV campaign in history. People don’t like phone-banking and door-knocking, and they have plenty of alternatives today. Our campaign offices need to be fun, inviting, entertaining, or people just won’t come out.

Finally, grassroots organizations need to spend far less time in their affinity bubbles talking to themselves nit-picking over minor policy differences. We need to put down our dog-eared copies of  our favorite books occasionally and get involved in spreading ideas in the language and context of 21st century America. And we have start advancing a few big ideas rather than a bunch of little policies.

We Need New Thinking and Funding

A lot of people on Twitter and Facebook are talking about doing what we’ve been doing, only harder. That won’t work. Grassroots conservatives burned themselves out in 2009 and 2010 working hard. And in 2012, the fatigue showed.

We need to look beyond politics to see how winning campaigns work. Look at advertising and marketing. Look at Hollywood and the online game worlds. Look to experts in consumer behavior and neuroscience. Stop looking inside the damn knitting circles of like-minded people.

If you want to help, register on this site. I’ll be talking a lot more about the strategy in Missouri.


13 thoughts on “Karl Rove’s Air Power Strategy Failed America And His Donors”

  1. My God.
    You have got this 100% right!
    And was it not Rove who should be tarred and feathered as a Rino idiot
    who welcomed the idea of Akin’s murder ?
    We trusted tha idiot???
    who said whoi

    1. Thanks.

      Ya know, I worry more about the big donor than Rove. I understand Rove’s a slick salesman. He did a great job building a business case for his approach. But those donors, by and large, earned their vast wealth through smart business decisions. I’ll be their corporations are far more technologically advanced than ORCA and Rove’s statistical systems. I’ll bet they employ top strategists and analysts. I’ll be they look ahead at the next challenges and opportunities, not back anomolous events like the 2010 Tea Part election.

      I’d really like to see new minds and fresh ideas attract the big donations for 2014 and 2016. Use the off-year election as a valid test of hypotheses, and invest heavily in the winners for 2016.

      1. Yes, enthusiastic new minds as well.
        But I need to add, this administration is E.V.I.L., not to mention all of the categories under that heading.
        Spiritual expertise, would be a plus, here,
        A friend who agrees with the massive fraud assessment, said we could have had a 90% turnout for conservative principles and the Constitution as the rule of law, but they would have still found a way to win even then.
        I am betting on people to be very weary by 2014.
        Fraud expertise will be critical to win.
        Your links for that are very good..

        A friend agreed with my fr

  2. Just how do you think you are going to overcome registering imaginary and dead people and all the fraud and corruption used by the Democrats with the help of he most corrupt AG ever seen in the United States , Eric Holder. Vote early and often is their motto. Unless the Republicans stoop to their level we will never win another election. Even the UN is shocked we don’t require proper id’s. All the publicity in the world will not overcome their dishonesty and when they hear the truth they don’t believe what they hear even if it is a proven fact.


    1. JC, I hate to say it, but you’re sounding a lot like the 47% Romney talked about: helpless, hopeless, dependent.

      There are organizations working on this. Check out True The Vote. In Missouri, you can get involved through Missouri Precinct Project.

      You have a choice, as all of us do. You can sit around admiring the problem, or you do something about it. What you do might not work, but you won’t feel hopeless and dependent on dark, mysterious forces that manipulate your life.

      Click one of those links. Volunteer to work on clean elections in your area. If you come up short, at least you tried.

      If you’re already involved, then I’d love to hear what you’ve done. Your story might inspire others to jump into the fray.

    1. Absolutely. I just sent JC to True the Vote and Missouri Precinct Project.

      And there’s more. If you’ve never been to an After Party, start this Thursday, November 15, at Yacovelli’s in Florissant at 7 pm. We’re talking about Fair Tax and Flat Tax, and how Big Ideas will trump petty policy statements, especially with those who didn’t bother to vote in 2012.

      Frieda, you’ve been the epitome of doing instead of sitting around complaining. Your tireless work with MOPP stands as a model for everyone who’s (understandably) tempted to throw up their hands in despair and wait for a political savior.

  3. I only have one question; why is anyone still listening to Rove? My goodness sakes he was Bush’s key advidsor that says it all.

    1. Two thoughts, Larry.
      1. Rove’s job isn’t ideas, it’s getting people elected. And he was credited with getting Bush elected. Twice.
      2. On the bases of 1, he amassed a lot of money. Money still talks.
      And maybe a 2.5: We desperately need a new campaign mastermind, but one who fully understands changes in marketing, analytics, social networks, and media. Those dynamics changed drastically since 2004.

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