Encouraging Boehner to shut down the government is the surest way to end conservatism as a practical political alternative.
The GOP has no leverage in budget negotiations, and conservative denial won’t change that.
Use Game Theory
As I wrote on November 12, fighting Obama – voting down a budget in the House – results in the GOP’s worst possible outcome: total blame for anything that goes wrong and no credit for anything that goes right.
Obama’s not an idiot, and neither are the media. That’s why Obama proposed tax increases, executive power increases, and spending increases far beyond those previously proposed.
Obama holds all the cards.
Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich, Charles Krauthammer, Mark Lewis, and Ramesh Ponnuru all see it.
The Hammer: Republicans should simply walk away
Lewis: Republicans Are So Screwed
Ponnuru: No win situation
The cliché “elections have consequences” hasn’t gotten through some people’s heads. It will.
Expect Obama to get almost everything he demanded.
- $1.6 Trillion tax hike—the largest in world history
- Vast new powers for the president, including the power to raise the debt ceiling (or end the ceiling)
- Big increases in social and construction spending
- Effective elimination of the principle that the House originates tax and spend bills
In other words, it’s over. The Congress is going the way of the Reichstag—a formalized debate society that endorses the president’s dictates.
Fixing a problem requires, first, an honest understanding of the real situation. Passing a Republican budget in the House might make YOU feel good (“Yeah! Boehner. Way to stick it to the man!”), but it won’t change what happens:
- Senate blocks
- Obama goes on tour of 5 states hurt most by the fiscal cliff
- Media runs 24/7 stories on the mounting “Republican Body Count” of Americans dying because Boehner drove the government train off the fiscal cliff
- Panicked Republicans call on Boehner to pass the President’s tax cuts
- House Republicans cave
- Obama has a beer party
- Obama’s power becomes effectively absolute.
If that’s what you want, then throw your temper tantrum and enjoy the consequences.
There Is Only One Option For House Republicans
Here’s the best strategy for Boehner to follow:
- Walk away from the negotiations
- Tell the president the House GOP will vote “Present”
- Spend $2 billion over 2 years on marketing, networking, and advertising the dangers of doing what Obama just did
- Focus on 2014
My solution might suck, but it’s what we, the people, voted for.
P.S. If you meet a “constitutionalist” or “conservative” who voted 3rd party, thank him for the worst-case scenario playing out before our eyes